Rational Decisions
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. However, Leonard… Celý popis ↓
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Rational Decisions
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to look before you leap.
Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds.The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Ken Binmore discusses the
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