Taming Uncertainty Hertwig Ralph
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world.How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time… Celý popis ↓
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Taming Uncertainty Hertwig Ralph
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world.How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty.
They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. This set of
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